I have been thinking about tools for technology market forecasters (like me) for many, many years. I’ve even completed a few would-be products (e..g, Excel add-ins). Now I envision a Web-centric service and am building it here.
The first step in any market forecast is the penetration curve, which is a sequence of points each providing the unit of time (e.g, year) and the percentage of a potential market that has adopted a product or service for each time. The penetration curve is popularly known as the s-curve.
Change m, p and q in the Excel model below to explore different penetration curves. The spreadsheet can be saved for use offline.
This spreadsheet uses the Bass Model to calculate the penetration curve.
Although the penetration curve is fundamental, it is just the first step to building a forecast.
How I Built this Gadget
I built this Silverlight gadget using Visual Studio 2013 and SpreadsheetGear for Silverlight.