Of course, an app could build technology market forecasts worth thousands of dollars each. Microsoft Excel does it now but only with brain-numbing, tedious, repetitive effort by the forecaster. Could there be a better way? Since the early 1990’s, my dream has been to build a specialized market-forecasting app with the following features: The app…
A meticulous reader pointed out this bug in Bass Model Calculator Online: when the p parameter slider changed, the years to saturation slider changed correctly, but the label did not show the changed value. Easy fix once I had a few coding moments, which have been very few lately as a client has been holding…
An Adopter by Any Other Name … This version of Forecast Futzer provides the following names for Adopters and Cumulative Adopters as measure pairs in a basic forecasting model: Physical Product Unit Sales and Installed Base Shipments and Installed Base Unit Sales and Devices in Use Unit Sales and Systems in Use New Adopters and…
Quick and Dirty Futzing For the benefit of futzers everywhere, this is version 1.0 of a tool for the most common forecast futzing problems. It is for those who do not want to take the time and trouble — or do not know how — to build a diffusion model. There is nothing wrong with futzing. …
How to Use the Product Database Using Bass Model Calculator, Select the Product Database tab above to explore the database. The dropdown lists are filters to access products with various characteristics. When all the dropdown lists show values, the product parameters and variables will have been entered into the model and graphs. Look at the…
Steps to an Example Forecast The following steps will build a forecast for the (inevitable) Internet of Pugs Cloud Service: 1. Specify the product category — In the App above, click the Product tab and enter “Internet of Pugs Cloud Service.” Notice that the title of each sheet reflects the change such that, for example, the first…
More Intuitive Parameter Options The usual Bass Model parameters are the potential market M, the innovation parameter p and the imitation parameter q. The potential market M is easy to understand as the ultimate number of adopters that will adopt the product. The number chosen for M may require much discussion, but at least management…
Wow! I am wowed by the responsiveness of this update to the Forecast Joy App. Try it yourself: as a slider pointer is dragged along, the curves change instantly and smoothly. The tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet workbook can be selected to observe the various curves as the parameter change. More About this Update…
App Can Now Export to Excel After calculating and refining a Bass Model curve to obtain a forecast that you judge to be reasonable, select the Export tab, then click the Export to Excel button to save an Excel spreadsheet of the Bass Model series data. Latest App on Forecast Joy App Page These blogs will…
Samsung Launches the Wearable Smart-Glove Category Today, Samsung and HTC showed the first wearable smart gloves. forecastjoy.com is forecasting that wearable smart-glove annual shipments will pass 300 million units in 2100 and will be commonplace in homes and business around the world. However, because new software apps will be required to make use of these products,…
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