New Forecast Futzer Measures: Subscribers, Shipments, Users …

An Adopter by Any Other Name …

This version of Forecast Futzer provides the following names for Adopters and Cumulative Adopters as measure pairs in a basic forecasting model:

  • Physical Product
    • Unit Sales and Installed Base
    • Shipments and Installed Base
    • Unit Sales and Devices in Use
    • Unit Sales and Systems in Use
    • New Adopters and Cum Adopters
    • New Users and Users
  • Subscription Products
    • New Subscribers and Subscribers
    • New Adopters and Cum Adopters
    • New Users and Users

The measure pair can now be selected in Futzer as appropriate for the product category being forecasted.  For example, if forecasting Things in an Internet of Things forecast,  Unit Sales and Devices in Use seem most natural.  However, if the number of users of Internet Things is being forecasted, New Users and Users would be more appropriate.  The numbers would be different in these two forecasts if, on average, each User owns more than one Thing.

In a basic model, as is now implemented in Futzer, the measure pairs listed above are mathematically equivalent so only the names in the model change, not the formulae.

Next …

Replacements, switchers, attrition and regionalization. And, someday, really fun things like generational diffusion models.

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